Week 4 only saw one game against a BCS opponent by a MWC team that no one expected to put up a fight. With several games against the WAC this was a chance for the MWC to separate themselves from the rest of the conferences begging for BCS scraps.
And they failed.
Using the emulated BCS automatic qualification standards the WAC leads the MWC from 2006-2008. 2008 was the only year in the past 3 where the MWC outperformed the WAC. Currently the gap between Boise State and TCU is roughly equal to the value of the MWC having a second team in the top 25. This week will help shape how they rank in the third criteria, average ranking of all teams in teh BCS computeres.
Top:
TCU handled their historic SWC rival SMU, as is the norm this decade. Few questions were answered in this game and TCU remains as big a question mark at this point this year as Utah was at this point last year.
Utah was off so we gained little new information, hough Oregon continued to redeem themselves.
BYU handled their instate rival Utah State by the exact score Utah beat them to open the season. Like the weekends for TCU and Utah we know about as much as we did last year.
Middle:
Air Force looks to have lost the commander in cheif trophy to Navy again this year. The possibility remains that Army could surprise everyone and claim it, adding a loss in the MWC only remaining OOC game of the regular season.
CSU lost a close battle to a surprising Idaho team.
UNLV got destroyed by Nevada, who looked like they spent the first four weeks looking ahead to this one game.
Bottom:
SDSU prevented New Mexico State from upending two MWC teams in as many weeks.
Wyoming also secured a win in a close game at Florida Atlantic.
New Mexico showed up and got payed by Texas Tech.
Summary
The MWC is 5-9 vs. BCS opponents. This gives them a PCT of 0.357, less than the 0.400 required by their own standards for a BCS automatic qualification.
Their 6-4 record over the WAC should give them a slight lead in the BCS computers for the third criteria, but prevent them from being anywhere near warranting a BCS automatic qualification at this time.
So what now?
The MWC's case for this season will ride on whether they can again get 3 teams into the top 25, or one into a BCS bowl. TCU could make for an interesting race with Boise State, but more than likely Boise State would have to lose one to open the door.
If Boise State goes to a BCS bowl, this would give the WAC 3 years of BCS participation to the MWC's 2. If they are selected over an undefeated TCU, who beat them in last years Poinsettia Bowl, this would help atone for Boise State being left out for Utah in 2004 and 2008, a team they have beat the last three meetings.
Utah can not lose to both TCU and BYU and getinto the top 25. A loss in the final week to Utah likely puts BYU out of the top 25 as well, unless they beat TCU first. The only way three MWC teams finish ranked is if they split and all beat every other MWC team.
Not much more will change until the bowls are announced. At that time I will continue with round 6, followed by the final count after the bowls.
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